Special Dialogue
2024.07.24
Jake Yamashita
Chairman of Ricoh Company, Ltd.
Noriko Arai
Professor, Director of Research Center for Community Knowledge
National Institute of Informatics Director General of Institute of Science for Education.
Specializes in mathematical logic. Has served as project director for the Todai Robot Project since 2011. Has been leading R&D for the Reading Skill Test since 2016. Her major books include How Computers Can Take Our Jobs (Nikkei Business Publications, Inc.) and Artificial Intelligence vs. Children Who Can't Read Textbooks (Toyo Keizai Inc.)
Akira Oyama
President & CEO of Ricoh Company, Ltd.
The Ricoh Group revised its Corporate Philosophy, the Ricoh Way, in April 2023, positioning Fulfillment through Work as its Mission & Vision. The COVID-19 pandemic has overturned much of what was previously considered conventional wisdom, and the emergence of generative AI systems such as ChatGPT has brought various changes to workplaces. In this evolving landscape, Ricoh is accelerating its transformation into a digital services company, aiming to support and empower workers' creativity by staying close to our customers. What future does Ricoh envision for the workplace? What capabilities do we need to develop to realize "Fulfillment through Work" for ourselves and our customers?
To explore these questions, Chairman Yamashita and President Oyama engaged in a discussion with Noriko Arai, author of Artificial Intelligence vs. Children Who Can't Read Textbooks and 21st Century Children.
Index
Oyama: Ms. Arai, in your book How Computers Can Take Our Jobs, which was published in 2010, you predicted, ahead of others around the world, the advent of a society where AI systems would replace human workers.
Arai: Yes, I did. Specifically, I predicted that about half of white-collar workers could be replaced by machines by around 2030. However, in the book, I used the term "machines" to refer to digital transformation (DX) rather than AI and robots. My book was the first in the world to predict that half of the jobs could be replaced through DX. Several years later, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) published "Race Against the Machine," which ranked jobs expected to be taken over by machines. This was different from my prediction. I envisioned a future where tasks that previously required ten workers could be done by five, rather than complete job replacement. This is because human work, while it may seem monotonous, involves a great deal of diversity and flexibility.
Oyama: Indeed, human work often involves connections across various sites and requires intellectual decision-making. I also believe that it is unlikely for human jobs to be completely taken over by machines.
Arai: Yes, it is unlikely. However, larger companies will be more substantially affected by the replacement of some of workers by machines. If it becomes possible to reduce the number of personnel performing operations at each department from 100 to 10, around 80 to 90% of a company's employees could be replaced. On the other hand, even with AI like ChatGPT, it is impossible to fully replace a job performed by a single person. This makes it difficult for small to medium-sized enterprises to adopt machine replacement. For instance, if a job previously done by five people can only be reduced to one person with the help of machines, it could lead to decreased profitability and significant disruption. I anticipated that the development of information technologies might cause such digital disruption.
Yamashita: I fully agree with your opinion that larger companies can foster DX more easily, just as they have been fostering the division of labor for mass production and mass consumption. In 1977, Ricoh advocated the office automation (OA) concept and the notion of "having machines handle routine tasks so people can do more creative work" and has since been supporting workers by implementing the concept.
Jake Yamashita
Oyama: You have said that part of the work that used to be done by lots of people can be performed by machines and AI and other technologies. Do you view this replacement a positive change for a society facing a decrease in its working population?
Arai: Well, I can't simply say "yes" to that question. The critical factor is having workers who can effectively use ChatGPT and other AI systems and supplement what these technologies can't do. It requires significant capability to discern inaccuracies in translations or reports generated by machines and to use AI effectively as a tool. Companies will increasingly seek such talent. On the other hand, those who merely follow AI instructions risk seeing their labor value decrease. In Japan, where the working population is declining, I believe it is crucial—and my mission—to help as many people as possible become proficient in using ChatGPT and other AI systems.
Noriko Arai
Yamashita: What abilities are necessary to become a skilled user of ChatGPT?
Arai: I believe it is important to have strong reading skills. Many people think reading skills merely involve the ability to comprehend written words, but it goes beyond that. Reading skills encompass the ability to accurately interpret and understand the meaning of texts, and to discern inconsistencies with known facts or learned knowledge. This includes what you've learned in school or observed through media. While ChatGPT produces very smooth text, it is not always 100% accurate. Without adequate reading skills to fact-check these texts, you might end up decreasing your productivity.
Oyama: In other words, you need to have the ability to correlate things and clarify causal relationships.
Arai: Yes, indeed. Even in a company advancing DX by introducing AI systems, there will be two types of personnel: those whose productivity does not improve because they often need to redo their work and those who can double their productivity by using these systems. I believe the key factor distinguishing these two groups is their level of reading skills.
Oyama: In your book 21st Century Children (2019), you pointed out that the Japanese education system develops exactly the type of workers who will be replaced by AI.
Arai: Yes, that's correct. Unlike paper tests in school, the ability to read deeply and think critically is not visualized. As a result, children often develop their own ways of coping, which can become fixed habits over time. This is a major factor that hinders the development of strong reading skills.
Oyama: Indeed, individuals do seem to acquire knowledge in their own way.
Arai: I have therefore developed the Reading Skill Test to observe what is happening in the brains of children and to visualize their self-development methods. Through administering this test to elementary, junior high, and high school students, it has become clear that reading skills are closely related to self-directed learning—the ability to learn independently about topics that interest them.
Yamashita: Ricoh needs personnel who can identify problems, acquire the necessary skills to solve them, and follow through to resolution autonomously. Reading skills are indeed essential for becoming the type of self-directed talent that Ricoh requires.
Akira Oyama
Oyama: How can reading skills help us make full use of AI for higher productivity? Could you give a specific example?
Arai: There are researchers and businesspeople who have reported that the use of ChatGPT can double or triple their productivity, and all of these individuals have excellent reading skills. While ChatGPT produces smooth, human-like text, even general content can contain about 2% obvious errors. For more cutting-edge topics, the error rate can be 50% or higher. To extract new and interesting insights from such texts, you need to skillfully navigate these errors, which requires significant intelligence and expertise.
Oyama: So we need to enhance reading skills individually.
Arai: Yes, though it is difficult. It is not enough to just have one person with a high level of reading skills on your team. Unless all team members have adequate reading skills, productivity will drop due to frequent rework. Think of it like a game of telephone.
Ricoh, as a company that deals with information, ideally needs to maintain a precision rate of 99.99% from initial input to final output. However, if people with different levels of reading skills are involved in the process, the accuracy of information will diminish, even if they are reading the same text. For example, when the Reading Skill Test was conducted at hospitals, the varying reading skills among doctors, nurses, physical therapists, and admin staff led to frequent misunderstandings and rework.
This lack of uniform reading skills can significantly impede resilience (the ability to adapt effectively in the face of difficulties), especially in crisis situations like the pandemic, leading to staff becoming overwhelmed.
To enhance organizational resilience in this era of change, it is crucial to improve the reading skills of all members and build a team capable of autonomous learning, rather than relying on just one highly skilled individual.
Yamashita: Are there any methods that can be used to improve reading skills?
Arai: There is a simple training method you can try. Choose an article from a newspaper, pick out some words from the headline and lead text, and then reconstruct sentences using those words. You might think you understand the text, but this exercise will reveal gaps in your comprehension. People often make errors in sentence structure and grammar, which can significantly diminish the accuracy of the information. If you continue this training for at least two weeks, you'll find that your ability to write well-constructed sentences improves.
Yamashita: It is quite interesting that reading skills are key to boosting productivity through DX. Additionally, I believe understanding the essence of your job is crucial. During my tenure as president, I led an in-house digital revolution, encouraging employees to use robotics and other machines on a trial basis. This experiment revealed a divide: some employees could effectively integrate these machines into their work, while others could not. I realized the difference lay in their understanding of the essence of their jobs. Those who grasped the true meaning of their work, considering its importance to customers, could leverage machines to enhance productivity. Conversely, those who did not understand their work's essence struggled to coexist with robots or AI systems.
Arai: There are people who can perform a job by following the manual but get flummoxed when told to make an operational improvement. These people cannot understand the position of their job in relation to the bigger picture and do only what they are told, like solving an equation and simply providing the right answer. In this age of innovation, such personnel are the least needed.
Yamashita: There used to be a time when it was enough to solve an equation correctly. However, we are no longer in such an age. Even if you can solve a very difficult equation, you cannot give a better answer without understanding the true purpose of your work. It means that sharing a successful experience within the company is not enough.
Arai: As you have said, large companies have been mass-producing and mass-selling products and services. However, AI now helps these companies lower their back-office costs, enabling them to start businesses in niche fields that were previously prohibitive due to small production lot sizes. Now that we can release unprecedentedly new products and services, I believe the number of entrepreneurs will increase, leading to a richer society. I myself have started a business under the slogan, "If you use a calculator three times for the same calculation, it's time to digitize." For me, digitalization is as natural as using our five senses. I think we need to foster DX so that we can focus on the special and non-obvious.
Oyama: While sustainability is highly valued in society today, economic growth and environmental conservation have often been seen as being in a trade-off relationship. To resolve this and enhance sustainability, we need to generate various innovations. For this to happen, taskwork should be delegated to AI, allowing humans to focus on creative work and innovation. Ricoh is committed to contributing to the creation of a sustainable society by helping workers unleash their creativity.
Arai: I believe that things we take for granted can lead to innovation. Many people might think that only individuals like Elon Musk or Steve Jobs can create innovations, but there are countless seeds for innovation in our daily lives. Often, things we assume are easy are actually not. Making something that should be simple, truly simple, can be an innovation. Innovations often arise from connecting thoughts and ideas in our daily lives.
Oyama: For such ideas to lead to innovation, it's necessary to abstract various related elements. By deeply understanding what you see and abstracting it using relevant concepts and principles, you can connect different events and experiences, which can result in innovative ideas.
Arai: Yes, I think that ability can also be considered a part of reading skills.
Yamashita: In our Corporate Philosophy, the Ricoh Way, we uphold INNOVATION as one of our core values. As you have said, there are many things that have been taken for granted and have not attracted much attention from society or companies. Discovering something new in what we take for granted can lead to innovation, but I also believe that finding out what can be discontinued and then actually discontinuing it is a form of innovation.
Yamashita: Ricoh will celebrate its centennial in 2036, but if we keep doing the same old things, we won't make it to our 150th or 200th anniversaries. We need to start preparing for the rebirth of the company in 2037, the year after our centennial. We aim to make Ricoh a company that helps people work creatively and realize their potential, which is encapsulated in the phrase, "Fulfillment through Work." We are determined to create a society where people can find more fulfillment in their work. To achieve this, I want Ricoh employees to be able to speak in their own words about how they find fulfillment in their work and their contributions to society. Of course, I will also share my experiences and thoughts on this. I believe that being able to do so is a testament to being autonomous and self-driven.
Arai: In the United States, it is said that it is difficult for a company to survive for 100 years by doing the same thing. However, the concept of OA, which Ricoh advocated, has a very broad meaning. At my own company, I deal with various data and can intuitively identify the data I need.
It is challenging to share this kind of intuitive knowledge with others, but I think Ricoh has been working in the realm of community knowledge, including such empirical knowledge.What is important is working with an understanding of how your current tasks connect to the bigger picture. If you just work busily without this understanding, it becomes a grind, like solving equations without seeing the purpose. Conversely, when you understand the true meaning of your work, busyness doesn't feel like a burden, and stress decreases. Ultimately, being able to work with a clear understanding of the significance of your tasks is what keeps you most energized and effective.
Oyama: This approach to work will lead you to Fulfillment through Work. To fully utilize AI, you need reading skills that allow you to correctly understand the meaning of text, clarify causal relationships, and determine if something is reasonable. Listening to you, I have gained a new insight. At Ricoh, we provide self-directed learning opportunities for our employees to become digital professionals through the Ricoh Digital Academy. This initiative aims to enhance digital skills across the board and help employees develop specialized skills to contribute to the creation and acceleration of our digital services. To increase the number of employees who can effectively use AI, we should also focus on enhancing their reading skills. By improving reading skills, we can help workers demonstrate their creativity and achieve Fulfillment through Work, ultimately contributing to a sustainable society. With this belief, we will continue to embrace challenges for innovation. Thank you for today.
How Computers Can Take Our Jobs
As of the end of 2010, the author warned of the threat posed to human workers by the exponentially increasing processing capacity of computers and gave insights into the types of work that only humans can perform.
Artificial Intelligence vs. Children Who Can't Read Textbooks and 21st Century Children
These books revealed the shocking fact that many Japanese junior and senior high school students do not understand their textbooks. The series became a bestseller, with more than 400,000 copies sold in total.